How to Effectively Create an SEO Projection

Learn how to create SEO projections and discover alternative methods for showcasing ROI without overpromising results.

With more companies requesting SEO projections, it’s a perfectly reasonable expectation. SEO often demands significant resources, and businesses naturally want to understand the potential return on their investment.

However, predicting future organic growth is far from straightforward. A multitude of variables can influence outcomes, including algorithm updates, fluctuating click-through rates, changes in SERPs, and the speed at which recommendations are implemented.

So, as an SEO professional, how should you navigate the challenge of providing SEO projections amidst these uncertainties?

This guide outlines a step-by-step approach to creating reliable SEO projections. Additionally, it introduces two alternative methods that may allow you to bypass the complexities of projection discussions altogether.

Making SEO projections: A step-by-step process

Creating a reliable SEO projection requires a structured and data-driven approach. By following a clear framework, you can forecast organic search performance with greater accuracy and confidence.

Step 1: Gather Relevant Keyword Data

Start by compiling all the keywords that the website currently ranks for, including their search volumes and current rankings. This initial dataset forms the foundation of your projection.

To ensure precision, filter out any irrelevant keywords from your list. Removing these will prevent overinflating the monthly search volume and lead to a more accurate analysis.

Step 2: Collect Estimated Click-Through Rates by Position

Click-through rates (CTRs) can differ greatly based on a keyword’s ranking position. For instance, keywords in Position 1 usually attract significantly more clicks than those in Position 12.

Although CTRs can vary depending on the industry and website, using position-specific CTR estimates is much more accurate than applying the same rate to all ranks.

Tip: Focus on obtaining CTR estimates for rankings between Positions 1 and 20. Beyond Position 20, CTRs are typically negligible, so any movement in rankings beyond this threshold is unlikely to generate meaningful traffic.

Step 3: Multiply Monthly Search Volume (MSV) by the CTR for the Current Position

To estimate the monthly traffic a keyword generates for your website, multiply its monthly search volume (MSV) by the click-through rate (CTR) for its current ranking position. This calculation gives you a baseline figure, which can be used to measure potential growth in the future.

It’s important to validate these estimates to ensure accuracy. Cross-check your keyword data, and if the results appear unusually high or unrealistic, adjust accordingly to maintain reliability in your projections.

Step 4: Estimate Ranking Improvements and Calculate New Visits

The next step involves predicting how your SEO strategies will improve keyword rankings and, in turn, generate additional traffic. While no SEO expert can guarantee specific ranking improvements, the general expectation is that better rankings will yield higher CTRs and more traffic.

To do this, set realistic ranking goals and calculate the new estimated traffic. Multiply the search volume of each keyword by the CTR associated with the anticipated new ranking. For clarity, ensure you subtract the current visits from the projected total. This adjustment reflects the increase in traffic compared to the existing baseline rather than the overall visits.

Considerations for Projections

Timeframe: SEO results take time. A six-month to one-year projection period works well, but adjust based on keyword difficulty, competitiveness, and the overall scope of your strategy.
Automation: Streamline this process by using an Excel sheet with formulas and VLOOKUPs to automate calculations. A pre-made template can save significant time and effort.

Validating Your Estimates

Once you’ve completed your calculations, evaluate the reasonableness of the results. For instance, if your projections suggest a 20x increase in traffic within a year, revisit the numbers and refine them to be more conservative and realistic.

Example Outcome

At the end of this step, you should have a clear estimate of new traffic from your improved rankings. For example, if your efforts indicate 5,260 additional monthly visits, this figure becomes the foundation of your broader SEO projections. Ensure this outcome aligns with the broader scope and expectations of your SEO plan.

Step 5: Establish Key Metrics – Conversion Rate and Conversion Value

To create a comprehensive SEO projection, defining critical metrics such as the average conversion rate and average conversion value is vital. These figures can often be sourced from first-party analytics data or provided directly by the business. Companies that request projections usually have these metrics readily available.

If the business doesn’t supply this information, you’ll need to align on estimates. This is particularly important as obtaining accurate data, like the average order value for non-ecommerce sites, can sometimes be tricky.

Variability in Conversion Data

It’s crucial to note that conversion rates and values may vary depending on the type of page. For instance:

Blog pages may have a lower conversion rate compared to service or product pages.
Key landing pages, like the homepage, may exhibit distinct conversion behaviours.

This variability is an important assumption to factor into your projection. While precise metrics would improve accuracy, working with reasonable averages is a practical alternative.

Example Metrics

For the sake of illustration, assume the following:

A conversion rate of 2%.
An average order value of £150.

These metrics form the foundation for estimating the potential ROI from your SEO efforts, helping to quantify the potential business impact of increased organic traffic.

Step 6: Calculate Estimated New Conversions

The next step in your SEO projection involves multiplying the total anticipated new traffic by the average conversion rate. This formula allows you to estimate the number of new monthly conversions that could result from improved rankings and capturing a larger share of search traffic.

Start by summing up the total projected new visits from your earlier calculations. Then, apply the agreed-upon conversion rate to this figure to estimate the likely increase in monthly conversions.

Example Calculation

For instance, if you project 5,260 additional monthly visits and the average conversion rate is 2%, the calculation would look like this:

5,260 new visits x 2% conversion rate = 105 new monthly conversions.

Significance of This Step

This simple yet effective calculation provides a tangible estimate of the business impact of your SEO efforts, helping stakeholders see the potential return in terms of customer acquisition. This figure serves as a key input for further ROI calculations or decision-making processes.

Step 7: Estimate Monthly Revenue from New Conversions

To estimate the potential revenue from your SEO efforts, multiply the number of new conversions by the average conversion value. This calculation helps you understand the financial impact of ranking improvements in terms of monthly revenue.

For example, if you project 105 new conversions and the average order value is $150, the calculation would look like this:

105 new conversions x $150 average order value = $15,750 monthly revenue.

Gradual Growth of SEO Results

It’s important to keep in mind that SEO results are not immediate. The numbers you generate through this calculation represent an estimate of incremental growth over time. As your rankings improve and traffic increases, you can expect these figures to gradually build over the selected timeframe, typically measured over several months or more.

Step 8: Layer New Traffic or Conversions Over Existing Performance

When making SEO projections, it’s essential to consider how ranking improvements will unfold over time. This step involves layering the projected increases in traffic or conversions over your current performance, taking into account your current trends.

If you have access to first-party data, this process becomes even more valuable. By incorporating your projections into the existing performance data, you can get a clearer picture of how these gains will manifest and their impact over time.

Aligning Projections with Current Trends

This step is particularly crucial if your current performance is trending downward. By factoring in the existing performance trends, you can ensure your projections are realistic and avoid overpromising results. For example, if your traffic has been declining, the projected improvements could be enough to bring performance back to the baseline level from the previous year, giving a more accurate and achievable projection.

SEO projection alternatives

Two Alternative Methods for SEO Projections

For situations that require quicker results or when there is limited data access, two alternative SEO projection methods can provide valuable insights: Opportunity Analysis and Hybrid Opportunity Analysis. Both approaches can be useful when a more detailed analysis isn’t feasible.

Opportunity Analysis

An opportunity analysis focuses on the number of keywords and the corresponding search volume that a website is close to ranking for. By organising the data in this way, you can identify opportunities that are within reach.

For example, you might discover that your website is already ranking on Page 2 or beyond for keywords with a large search volume. You could highlight this by stating:
“There are 1.5 million monthly searches where your website already ranks on Page 2 and beyond.”
Adding data on the cost per click (CPC) for these keywords can further emphasise the potential savings from an SEO campaign. For instance:
“It would cost $23,471 to acquire traffic from these keywords via a paid campaign.”
In most cases, the SEO campaign will cost significantly less, providing long-term value without the ongoing expense of paid ads.

While this method isn’t an exact science, it can be highly effective without needing first-party data, which some businesses may be hesitant to share. It’s a quick and insightful way to approach SEO projections, and it can help avoid lengthy discussions about in-depth forecasting.

Hybrid Opportunity Analysis

Building on the opportunity analysis, the hybrid method introduces additional layers of financial estimation. This method pairs the monthly search volume with other metrics like the average click-through rate (CTR), average order value (AOV), and average conversion rate (CVR).

This approach allows you to quickly estimate the financial potential of your SEO efforts. Here’s how it works:

Start by gathering the keywords you want to target, then sum up their monthly search volume (MSV). For instance, let’s say you’re targeting 100,000 MSV.

To get more accurate projections, you can either pull a list of keywords a website ranks for in positions 1–100 using a third-party tool, or filter out irrelevant keywords to refine the list. The time spent on this step depends on your available resources and the level of accuracy needed.

Next, set an average click-through rate. CTRs can vary, but they typically fall between 1% and 5%. For this example, we’ll assume a 4% CTR, which can be sourced from Google Search Console or industry data.

Then, set the average order value and conversion rate. These figures can often be obtained by reviewing first-party data or by asking the business for their internal numbers. For this example, we’ll assume a 3% conversion rate (CVR) and an average order value of $75.

Now, perform the following calculations:

(100,000 MSV) x (4% CTR) = 4,000 visits
(4,000 visits) x (3% CVR) = 120 conversions
(120 conversions) x ($75 AOV) = $9,000 in monthly revenue

The goal of the hybrid opportunity analysis is to evaluate the total addressable market (TAM) and estimate how much of that market you can capitalise on with your SEO efforts. This method provides quick, actionable insights without the need for extensive data gathering or complex calculations.

Practical steps for predicting SEO growth

Caveats to Consider in SEO Projections

When presenting SEO projections, it’s crucial to have a list of caveats prepared. Projections are based on research and available data, but they involve several assumptions that may affect their accuracy.

These assumptions typically include factors such as:

The extent to which rankings will improve.
The accuracy of the click-through rates (CTRs).
The time it will take for performance improvements to materialise.
Whether conversion rates will remain consistent.
Whether the business will follow through with implementing your recommendations.

It’s important to acknowledge that there are no perfect solutions to some of these assumptions without advanced predictive analytics. Many of the factors that influence SEO outcomes are beyond our control, making it impossible to guarantee precise results.

However, understanding these variables allows you to have more informed discussions about future performance. With these insights, you’re better equipped to make your own SEO projections and manage client expectations effectively.