ChatGPT’s Search Surge: 1% Market Share by 2025

Could ChatGPT search reach a 1% share of the search market by next year? According to new internal data shared with Search Engine Land, this could very well be possible. The data comes from BrightEdge, an enterprise SEO platform, which has been tracking the growth of AI-driven search. The findings suggest that ChatGPT’s influence in the search market is rapidly increasing and could reach a significant milestone in the near future.

Jim Yu, the founder and executive chair of BrightEdge, made a notable statement regarding the projections: “For the first time, we can see a trajectory where ChatGPT could cross the magic 1% market share threshold sometime next year.” This insight is particularly exciting for those in the SEO and digital marketing world, as it signals the growing influence of AI in the search engine landscape.

Why is this significant? The rise of AI search tools like ChatGPT could fundamentally change how people discover websites, brands, and content online. As AI search continues to evolve, it may provide more personalised and efficient results, changing the way users interact with the web. As more users embrace AI-driven search tools, digital marketers need to watch these trends closely, as they may drastically alter strategies for SEO, content creation, and audience engagement.

What’s even more intriguing is that ChatGPT search is now available to all free users, making it more accessible and increasing its potential for rapid growth. The broader availability of ChatGPT to the public means that more people will be using it to search, which in turn could lead to a significant uptick in traffic and usage metrics. This rapid growth could accelerate ChatGPT’s journey toward becoming a major player in the search engine market.

In terms of performance, ChatGPT is already showing strong results compared to its competitors. According to a referral analysis of November traffic by BrightEdge, ChatGPT is now six times larger than Perplexity, another AI-driven search tool. This suggests that ChatGPT is not only growing at a faster rate but is also drawing more interest and traffic from users. In the past few months, search traffic from both ChatGPT and Perplexity has seen impressive growth, with ChatGPT traffic increasing by 44% and Perplexity traffic growing by 71%.

However, despite these promising developments for AI search, Google remains the dominant player in the market by a wide margin. Google continues to control 92.4% of all referral traffic, keeping it firmly at the top of the search engine hierarchy. Microsoft Bing also holds a portion of the market, with a 4.2% share in November. These figures show just how far ahead Google remains, even as newer AI search engines like ChatGPT rise in prominence.

The question of ChatGPT’s market share becomes even more complicated when we consider different estimates. For example, Rand Fishkin, CEO and co-founder of SparkToro, estimated last month that ChatGPT’s search market share was 4.33%, based on data from SimilarWeb and Datos (a Semrush company). This estimate is significantly higher than BrightEdge’s prediction of 1% for next year. The large discrepancy between these figures has caused confusion and sparked debates over the accuracy of data when it comes to tracking the growth of new AI search engines.

This difference in market share estimates highlights the complexity of measuring the impact of emerging technologies like ChatGPT. As the search landscape continues to evolve, it will be crucial to monitor how AI tools gain traction and reshape the way people search for information online. Whether ChatGPT will reach a 1% or 4.33% share of the market, or something in between, remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: AI search is quickly becoming a force to be reckoned with in the digital world.

The BrightEdge analysis that we’re discussing is based on referral data, which provides insights into the growing role of AI-driven tools like ChatGPT within the search ecosystem. While this data does shed light on current trends and traffic sources, it’s important to clarify that this is just one perspective. Referral data, while useful, does not capture the entirety of ChatGPT’s usage, and there are many other factors at play that influence its role in the search market.

Moreover, Rand Fishkin, the CEO of SparkToro, later downplayed the 4% market share figure he had previously mentioned during his BrightonSEO keynote. He noted that not every interaction with ChatGPT should be classified as a “search,” a critical point that affects how we measure and define market share. ChatGPT is used for a variety of purposes, many of which go beyond the traditional notion of a search query. For instance, users may engage in conversations, get recommendations, or explore topics without necessarily searching for specific websites or information.

This distinction matters because it suggests that ChatGPT’s functionality and user engagement are not entirely comparable to traditional search engines like Google. Search engines are focused on indexing and delivering results based on keywords, whereas ChatGPT’s interactions are more conversational and can often involve complex, multi-step processes that do not always result in a direct search.

So, if you encountered the 4% figure, as stated by Fishkin or elsewhere, it’s important to reconsider its accuracy. The data presented by BrightEdge, based on referral analysis, paints a more nuanced picture and provides a clearer view of ChatGPT’s growing presence. Given the nature of the AI tool, it’s clear that measuring its impact on the search market requires a more comprehensive understanding of how users are engaging with it, rather than relying solely on referral traffic data or traditional search metrics.

Ultimately, the key takeaway is that the 4% market share figure for ChatGPT is not correct. When evaluating AI search tools, it’s crucial to consider the context in which they are used and how their engagement differs from traditional search platforms. With AI search evolving rapidly, understanding these nuances will be essential for accurately assessing the changing landscape.